Ship'em to Mars | Harmful Leaders Report

Higher scores indicate greater estimated harm exposure for people under a leader’s authority, including spillovers to neighbors and externally targeted violence.

Top 150

Rank	Leader	Score	Δ Rank	Harm	Exposure
1	Salva Kiir Mayardit South Sudan • Head of State	0.443	→	0.583	0.772
2	Nicolás Maduro Venezuela • Head of State	0.376	→	0.475	0.814
3	Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Sudan • Head of State	0.373	→	0.517	0.841
4	Abdalla Hamdok Sudan • Head of Government	0.373	→	0.517	0.841
5	Emmerson Mnangagwa Zimbabwe • Head of State	0.333	→	0.459	0.788
6	Mahmoud Abbas Palestine • Head of State	0.296	→	0.404	0.734
7	Ali Khamenei Iran • Head of State	0.293	→	0.337	0.869
8	Félix Tshisekedi Democratic Republic of the Congo • Head of State	0.292	→	0.388	0.877
9	Ilunga Ilunkamba Sylvestre Democratic Republic of the Congo • Head of Government	0.292	→	0.388	0.877
10	Vladimir Putin Russia • Head of State	0.278	→	0.319	0.890
11	Faustin-Archange Touadéra Central African Republic • Head of State	0.273	→	0.397	0.734
12	Kim Jong-un North Korea • Head of State	0.272	→	0.341	0.810
13	Yoweri Museveni Uganda • Head of State	0.272	→	0.323	0.840
14	Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed Yemen • Head of Government	0.270	→	0.364	0.830
15	Xi Jinping People's Republic of China • Head of State	0.266	→	0.274	0.999
16	Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Egypt • Head of State	0.266	→	0.313	0.880
17	Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia • Head of Government	0.262	→	0.331	0.886
18	Évariste Ndayishimiye Burundi • Head of State	0.261	→	0.412	0.780
19	Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Turkey • Head of State	0.259	→	0.310	0.866
20	Paul Biya Cameroon • Head of State	0.253	→	0.310	0.815
21	Isaias Afwerki Eritrea • Head of State	0.249	→	0.348	0.715
22	Mostafa Madbouly Egypt • Head of Government	0.246	→	0.313	0.880
23	Denis Sassou-Nguesso Republic of the Congo • Head of State	0.242	→	0.327	0.742
24	Kokhir Rasulzoda Tajikistan • Head of Government	0.241	→	0.324	0.767
25	João Lourenço Angola • Head of State	0.239	→	0.315	0.827
26	Daniel Ortega Nicaragua • Head of State	0.236	→	0.317	0.747
27	Mikhail Mishustin Russia • Head of Government	0.231	→	0.319	0.890
28	Alexander Lukashenko Belarus • Head of State	0.230	→	0.303	0.760
29	Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukraine • Head of State	0.230	→	0.324	0.827
30	Ilham Aliyev Azerbaijan • Head of State	0.230	→	0.301	0.765
31	Norodom Sihamoni Cambodia • Head of State	0.230	→	0.291	0.791
32	Teodoro Obiang Equatorial Guinea • Head of State	0.227	→	0.331	0.685
33	Isaac Herzog Israel • Head of State	0.226	→	0.394	0.764
34	Min Aung Hlaing Myanmar • Head of Government	0.224	→	0.352	0.844
35	Abdulla Aripov Uzbekistan • Head of Government	0.224	→	0.289	0.825
36	Shavkat Mirziyoyev Uzbekistan • Head of State	0.224	→	0.289	0.825
37	Mswati III Eswatini • Head of State	0.222	→	0.333	0.665
38	Mohamed Hussein Roble Somalia • Head of Government	0.217	→	0.337	0.795
39	Joseph Ngute Cameroon • Head of Government	0.217	→	0.310	0.815
40	Paul Kagame Rwanda • Head of State	0.208	→	0.267	0.781
41	Hibatullah Akhundzada Afghanistan • Head of State	0.205	→	0.328	0.833
42	Ali Asadov Azerbaijan • Head of Government	0.205	→	0.301	0.765
43	Robinah Nabbanja Uganda • Head of Government	0.204	→	0.323	0.840
44	Rashad al-Alimi Yemen • Head of State	0.204	→	0.364	0.830
45	Benjamin Netanyahu Israel • Head of Government	0.203	→	0.394	0.764
46	Ismail Omar Guelleh Djibouti • Head of State	0.202	→	0.306	0.662
47	Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud Saudi Arabia • Head of State	0.201	→	0.256	0.824
48	Mohammad Mustafa Palestine • Head of Government	0.200	→	0.404	0.734
49	Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed Djibouti • Head of Government	0.197	→	0.306	0.662
50	Félix Moloua Central African Republic • Head of Government	0.196	→	0.397	0.734
51	Phankham Viphavan Laos • Head of Government	0.195	→	0.344	0.752
52	Julius Maada Bio Sierra Leone • Head of State	0.193	→	0.285	0.757
53	Letsie III of Lesotho Lesotho • Head of State	0.191	→	0.275	0.695
54	Mahamat Déby Chad • Head of State	0.190	→	0.354	0.798
55	Serdar Berdimuhamedow Turkmenistan • Head of State	0.189	→	0.373	0.750
56	Assimi Goïta Mali • Head of State	0.186	→	0.307	0.806
57	Alassane Ouattara Ivory Coast • Head of State	0.186	→	0.230	0.819
58	Mohammed VI of Morocco Morocco • Head of State	0.185	→	0.224	0.827
59	Miguel Díaz-Canel Cuba • Head of State	0.185	→	0.270	0.768
60	Gervais Ndirakobuca Burundi • Head of Government	0.183	→	0.412	0.780
61	Anatole Collinet Makosso Republic of the Congo • Head of Government	0.183	→	0.327	0.742
62	Abdelmadjid Tebboune Algeria • Head of State	0.182	→	0.253	0.837
63	Shehbaz Sharif Pakistan • Head of Government	0.181	→	0.294	0.917
64	Samia Suluhu Hassan Tanzania • Head of State	0.180	→	0.280	0.855
65	Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Somalia • Head of State	0.180	→	0.337	0.795
66	Manuel Marrero Cruz Cuba • Head of Government	0.178	→	0.270	0.768
67	Narendra Modi India • Head of Government	0.178	→	0.184	1.000
68	Phạm Minh Chính Vietnam • Head of Government	0.177	→	0.269	0.874
69	Vajiralongkorn Thailand • Head of State	0.177	→	0.219	0.857
70	Hamad II of Bahrain Bahrain • Head of State	0.176	→	0.261	0.677
71	Thongloun Sisoulith Laos • Head of State	0.174	→	0.344	0.752
72	Azali Assoumani Comoros • Head of State	0.174	→	0.286	0.648
73	Hakainde Hichilema Zambia • Head of State	0.174	→	0.289	0.800
74	Bola Ahmed Tinubu Nigeria • Head of State	0.174	→	0.334	0.913
75	Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Kazakhstan • Head of State	0.173	→	0.253	0.798
76	Mohamed al-Menfi Libya • Head of State	0.171	→	0.303	0.750
77	Abd al-Hamid Dbeibeh Libya • Head of Government	0.171	→	0.303	0.750
78	James Marape Papua New Guinea • Head of Government	0.170	→	0.259	0.767
79	Mamady Doumbouya Guinea • Head of State	0.169	→	0.287	0.782
80	Emomali Rahmon Tajikistan • Head of State	0.167	→	0.324	0.767
81	Choguel Kokalla Maïga Mali • Head of Government	0.167	→	0.307	0.806
82	Peter Mutharika Malawi • Head of State	0.164	→	0.305	0.801
83	Lazarus Chakwera Malawi • Head of Government	0.164	→	0.305	0.801
84	Nana Akufo-Addo Ghana • Head of Government	0.164	→	0.217	0.823
85	Patrice Talon Benin • Head of State	0.163	→	0.222	0.782
86	Cyril Ramaphosa South Africa • Head of State	0.163	→	0.214	0.852
87	Muhammad Shia' al-Sudani Iraq • Head of Government	0.160	→	0.285	0.836
88	Abdul Latif Rashid Iraq • Head of State	0.160	→	0.285	0.836
89	Ibrahim Traoré Burkina Faso • Head of State	0.160	→	0.295	0.805
90	Apollinaire Joachim Kyélem de Tambèla Burkina Faso • Head of Government	0.160	→	0.295	0.805
91	Mohamed Ould Ghazouani Mauritania • Head of State	0.156	→	0.249	0.733
92	Li Qiang People's Republic of China • Head of Government	0.156	→	0.274	0.999
93	Mohammad Hasan Akhund Afghanistan • Head of Government	0.155	→	0.328	0.833
94	Hun Manet Cambodia • Head of Government	0.155	→	0.291	0.791
95	Tamim bin Hamad Al Qatar • Head of State	0.152	→	0.221	0.705
96	Sadyr Japarov Kyrgyzstan • Head of State	0.148	→	0.263	0.749
97	William Ruto Kenya • Head of State	0.148	→	0.259	0.846
98	Nayib Bukele El Salvador • Head of State	0.147	→	0.231	0.742
99	Ali Lamine Zeine Niger • Head of Government	0.146	→	0.317	0.811
100	Abdourahamane Tchiani Niger • Head of State	0.146	→	0.317	0.811
101	Xiomara Castro Honduras • Head of State	0.146	→	0.281	0.768
102	Salman bin Hamad, Crown Prince of Bahrain Bahrain • Head of Government	0.143	→	0.261	0.677
103	Alix Didier Fils-Aimé Haiti • Head of Government	0.141	→	0.422	0.772
104	Haitham bin Tarik Al Said Oman • Head of State	0.140	→	0.235	0.734
105	Aziz Akhannouch Morocco • Head of Government	0.140	→	0.224	0.827
106	Adama Barrow The Gambia • Head of State	0.139	→	0.216	0.703
107	Älihan Smaiylov Kazakhstan • Head of Government	0.136	→	0.253	0.798
108	Mohammad Shahabuddin Bangladesh • Head of State	0.136	→	0.265	0.899
109	Kais Saied Tunisia • Head of State	0.135	→	0.204	0.774
110	Javier Milei Argentina • Head of State	0.133	→	0.279	0.836
111	Aleksandar Vučić Serbia • Head of State	0.130	→	0.191	0.744
112	Umaro Sissoco Embaló Guinea-Bissau • Head of State	0.129	→	0.277	0.692
113	Sam Matekane Lesotho • Head of Government	0.129	→	0.275	0.695
114	Taye Atske Selassie Ethiopia • Head of State	0.127	→	0.331	0.886
115	Masoud Pezeshkian Iran • Head of Government	0.126	→	0.337	0.869
116	Russell Dlamini Eswatini • Head of Government	0.126	→	0.333	0.665
117	Droupadi Murmu India • Head of State	0.124	→	0.184	1.000
118	David Sengeh Sierra Leone • Head of Government	0.123	→	0.285	0.757
119	Pak Thae-song North Korea • Head of Government	0.119	→	0.341	0.810
120	Bongbong Marcos Philippines • Head of State	0.117	→	0.198	0.880
121	Daniel Noboa Ecuador • Head of State	0.117	→	0.258	0.792
122	Gustavo Petro Colombia • Head of State	0.116	→	0.205	0.843
123	Asif Ali Zardari Pakistan • Head of State	0.116	→	0.294	0.917
124	Abdullah II of Jordan Jordan • Head of State	0.116	→	0.224	0.771
125	Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan United Arab Emirates • Head of State	0.115	→	0.222	0.768
126	Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum United Arab Emirates • Head of Government	0.115	→	0.222	0.768
127	Viktor Orbán Hungary • Head of Government	0.114	→	0.151	0.762
128	Dalton Tagelagi Niue • Head of Government	0.109	→	0.177	0.760
129	Mark Brown Cook Islands • Head of Government	0.109	→	0.177	0.760
130	Rui Duarte de Barros Guinea-Bissau • Head of Government	0.109	→	0.277	0.692
131	Luis Abinader Dominican Republic • Head of State	0.109	→	0.174	0.770
132	Irfaan Ali Guyana • Head of State	0.109	→	0.208	0.646
133	Mark Phillips Guyana • Head of Government	0.109	→	0.208	0.646
134	Nikol Pashinyan Armenia • Head of Government	0.108	→	0.171	0.708
135	Sabah Al-Khalid Al-Sabah Kuwait • Head of Government	0.107	→	0.218	0.731
136	Robert Beugré Mambé Ivory Coast • Head of Government	0.107	→	0.230	0.819
137	Pushpa Kamal Dahal Nepal • Head of Government	0.106	→	0.194	0.816
138	Salome Zourabichvili Georgia • Head of State	0.105	→	0.164	0.717
139	Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema Gabon • Head of State	0.104	→	0.262	0.699
140	Raymond Ndong Sima Gabon • Head of Government	0.104	→	0.262	0.699
141	Rumen Radev Bulgaria • Head of State	0.104	→	0.153	0.743
142	Muhammad Yunus Bangladesh • Head of Government	0.103	→	0.265	0.899
143	Tô Lâm Vietnam • Head of State	0.101	→	0.269	0.874
144	Željka Cvijanović Bosnia and Herzegovina • Head of State	0.100	→	0.209	0.710
145	Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua Equatorial Guinea • Head of Government	0.098	→	0.331	0.685
146	Bah Oury Guinea • Head of Government	0.097	→	0.287	0.782
147	José Ramos-Horta Timor-Leste • Head of State	0.097	→	0.214	0.671
148	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Brazil • Head of State	0.095	→	0.185	0.909
149	Khurelsukh Ukhnaa Mongolia • Head of State	0.095	→	0.176	0.715
150	Maia Sandu Moldova • Head of State	0.094	→	0.167	0.696

Methodology

Sources:

Leaders and tenure: Wikidata (heads of state and government, images, start dates).
Population: World Bank SP.POP.TOTL.
Homicide rate: World Bank VC.IHR.PSRC.P5.
Voice & accountability: World Bank WGI VA.EST.
Control of corruption: World Bank WGI CC.EST.
GDP growth: World Bank NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG.
Extreme poverty: World Bank SI.POV.DDAY.
Inflation: World Bank FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG.
Conflict deaths (place-based): UCDP Organized Violence Country-Year 25.1 (sb_total_deaths_best_cy, per 100k by location).
Conflict deaths (actor-attributed): UCDP GED 25.1 (event-level, side_a/side_b mapped to states via country roster aliases and GWNO hints, per 100k by perpetrating state; limited to ~last 8 years).

Scoring model (higher = worse):

exposure = log1p(pop) / max_log_pop
violence_score   = 0.7 * norm(actor_conflict_deaths_per_100k)
                 + 0.1 * norm(conflict_deaths_per_100k)
                 + 0.2 * norm(homicide_rate)
repression_score = 1 - norm(voice_and_accountability)
corruption_score = 1 - norm(control_of_corruption)
inflation_penalty = clip((inflation_cpi - 5) / 100, 0, 1)
gdp_penalty       = clip(-gdp_growth / 20, 0, 1)
econ_score        = 0.6 * inflation_penalty + 0.4 * gdp_penalty
poverty_score     = norm(poverty_rate)

harm_score = 0.35*violence_score + 0.25*repression_score
             + 0.20*econ_score + 0.10*corruption_score
             + 0.10*poverty_score

tenure_weight = 0.25 + 0.75 * (1 - exp(-ln(2) * tenure_years / 2.5))
  (years since tenure start; defaults to 3 years if unknown; clipped to [0,1])

score = harm_score * exposure * tenure_weight

Normalization is min–max per run; missing data yields lower penalties or median fills. Actor conflict uses recent years to avoid historic wars. Tenure ramp down-weights newly installed leaders while still assigning a minimum accountability floor.

Generated: 20251215-221030

Ship'em to Mars | Harmful Leaders Report

Top 150

Methodology

Score Distribution